ephmra’ s Forecasting Forum: Is the halo effect a ghost or real?
Friday, 27 October 2023 at 13:00 UK (14:00 CET)
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As a student already, Fritz Meyer has been interested in quantitative marketing, economics and epistemology. Forecasting projects have always been fascinating to Fritz, as forecasts have consequences. Every forecast is different for him based on the concrete business question. During his more than 20 years in global forecast functions he has created many forecast models over many disease areas to support decisions from short planning to long term investments, from smaller decisions to large mergers. Fritz is currently forecasting a number of different products at Boehringer Ingelheim. He holds an MBA (University of Hamburg), a master in economic epistemology (Paris I/ENS d’Ulm) and a master in Market Access (EMAUD University Bordeaux). In his spare time Fritz enjoys running and playing chess.
The halo effect was first identified by psychologist Edward Thorndike in the 1920ies. It describes the tendency to make specific interference based on a general impression. The halo effect on sales can be positive and negative. Nowadays in pharmaceutical forecasting the halo effect is cited on a regular basis to explain good performance and to predict superior product success. To show the halo effect, we will look on several examples in pharma and in a second step the „right“ questions are proposed before forecasting new products or evaluate existing products. There will be ample time in the subsequent Q&A and forum discussions to address questions such as ‘Can a halo effect be quantified in a forecast?’ and to hear from your peers in the industry what they have to say about this topic.
Target audience: Insights Analysts, Forecasters, Marketeers and Value Leads who need to understand which factors and events will impact on their revenue forecast positively or negatively.
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