ephmra’ s Webinar: Inflation-Reduction-Act (IRA) – What is the Commercial Impact?

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Wednesday, 29 November 2023 at 16:00 UK (17:00 CET)

Register here

The Inflation-Reduction-Act (IRA) from 2022 is meant to curb US drug pricing for Medicare without directly impacting on the idea of free-pricing, which seems to be a principle very sacrosanct to the US market as a whole. Will the IRA achieve its objectives? How is the industry responding? What impact will the IRA have on your forecast assumptions? This forecasting forum will start with a briefing on what the IRA is, which challenges it is aimed to tackle and which impact it is likely to have on the industry generally and on forecasting assumptions specifically.

About the speaker:

Erik Holzinger is the founder of groupH a Consulting company dedicated to commercial decision making and analysis. Erik is also active as member of the ephmra Annual Conference Organizing Committee and co-founder of the ephmra Forecasting Forum. Over 25 years Erik has been exploring and refining the approach to commercial forecasting and decision making in particular in the early stages of product development. In October 2023 groupH published a white-paper and free-to-use online tool on the IRA in order to help understanding its long term impact and its impact on day-to-day forecasting. Erik’s mother tongue is German and he is fluent in English and Spanish and lives in South-West London with his family.

Target audience: Insights Analysts, Forecasters, Marketeers and Value Leads who need to understand which factors and events will impact on their revenue forecast positively or negatively.

Any questions just get in touch:

generalmanager@ephmra.org

erik.holzinger@grouph.com

ephmra’ s Forecasting Forum: Is the halo effect a ghost or real?

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Friday, 27 October 2023 at 13:00 UK (14:00 CET)

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As a student already, Fritz Meyer has been interested in quantitative marketing, economics and epistemology. Forecasting projects have always been fascinating to Fritz, as forecasts have consequences. Every forecast is different for him based on the concrete business question. During his more than 20 years in global forecast functions he has created many forecast models over many disease areas to support decisions from short planning to long term investments, from smaller decisions to large mergers. Fritz is currently forecasting a number of different products at Boehringer Ingelheim. He holds an MBA (University of Hamburg), a master in economic epistemology (Paris I/ENS d’Ulm) and a master in Market Access (EMAUD University Bordeaux). In his spare time Fritz enjoys running and playing chess.

The halo effect was first identified by psychologist Edward Thorndike in the 1920ies. It describes the tendency to make specific interference based on a general impression. The halo effect on sales can be positive and negative. Nowadays in pharmaceutical forecasting the halo effect is cited on a regular basis to explain good performance and to predict superior product success. To show the halo effect, we will look on several examples in pharma and in a second step the „right“ questions are proposed before forecasting new products or evaluate existing products. There will be ample time in the subsequent Q&A and forum discussions to address questions such as ‘Can a halo effect be quantified in a forecast?’ and to hear from your peers in the industry what they have to say about this topic.

Target audience: Insights Analysts, Forecasters, Marketeers and Value Leads who need to understand which factors and events will impact on their revenue forecast positively or negatively.

Any questions just get in touch:

generalmanager@ephmra.org

erik.holzinger@grouph.com

Data Collection, Analysis and Communication Masterclass – Part 2

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Friday, 29 September 2023 at 13:00 UK (14:00 CET)

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Okke has created many business solutions, set up centers of excellence around the globe and trained many researchers and clients on advanced analytical techniques. He is a client facing statistician as he believes that direct work with client is the best way to fully understand and advise on research and analytics. He has been always fascinated in the process of gathering in-depth understanding of human thinking in relation to questionnaire content improvements for various measurements. Previously he was a chief research officer at Synovate, Ipsos and PSL group. He holds a master’s degree in Psychological Methods and Techniques of Research (University of Amsterdam).

Demand studies frequently use conjoint models as we illustrated during our Webinar #1 back in March. This makes total sense, as it’s a very insightful way of analysing the impact of multiple attributes which are shown at the same time. However, there are a number of different conjoint methods at our disposal, all with their respective strengths and weaknesses. We therefore have to decide which method is most suitable in which situation.

Please join us for Webinar #2 of this series, which will shine a light on this dilemma by offering some guidance for each method.
We welcome back Okke Engelsma from Cerner Enviza, who, during his 20 years in the UK has trained many researchers and clients on advanced analytical techniques. Okke was previously chief research officer at Synovate, Ipsos and PSL group. He holds a masters in Psychological Methods and Techniques of Research (University of Amsterdam).
There will be ample time for cross industry, peer-to-pear discussions during this session.

This session is for both, sponsors and market researchers and those more and less experienced with demand modelling.

Any questions just get in touch:

generalmanager@ephmra.org

erik.holzinger@grouph.com

 

Supply Chain Forecasting Webinar July 2023

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      Registration link

Following recent global events, the topic of Supply Chain has never been far from the news, even covering the pharmaceutical industry. Richard Murgatroyd has a long track record in global, commercial forecasting in both industry and agency and focused in particular on global long-range Supply Chain planning for pharma products during the past 9 years. He transitioned from being a ‘gamekeeper’ to becoming a ‘poacher’ of forecasts as he puts it. Richard will explain in general terms some of the principles of Supply Chain planning, as well as how he uses long-term volume forecasts in practice to plan manufacturing capacities. He will illustrate how demand forecasts and SC plans support decision making in the short- and long-term and also touch on some measures of reliability as from his old gamekeeper role Richard is very aware of inherent uncertainties in long term forecasting.

Both member and non-member companies can attend.

Any questions just get in touch – erik.holzinger@grouph.com

The groupH Team

ephmra 2023 Annual Conference London

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Join groupH at the 2023 ephmra Annual Conference, 27-29 June 2023.
Erik Holzinger, Director, groupH will be convening and speaking at the following roundtables.

Launching products that make a real difference – the critical role of MR insights and BI
27th June, 15:50 – 16:30 UK
Convenor: Erik Holzinger (groupH)
Geoff Birkett (Ensysce Biosciences)

Beyond the buzzword: can behavioral science improve pharma forecasts?
28th June, 14:40 – 15:15 UK
Convenor: Erik Holzinger (groupH)
Speakers: Ivo Moes (Skim) / Celine Talon (Skim)

Drug forecasts based on mathematical models are helpful in informing market strategies and mitigating some of the uncertainties of drug development. However, these mathematical forecast models tend to come with some margin of error. While it remains difficult to predict outcomes of clinical trials, human behavior contributes to this error margin as well. During this roundtable we invite industry and agency representatives to engage in a group discussion on whether behavioral science models could be leveraged to improve the accuracy of forecasting, what methods are already being applied, or what such methods could look like.

TPP Design in Qualitative and Quantitative Primary Market Research
28th June, 15:50 – 16:25 UK
Speakers: Erik Holzinger (groupH) / Okke Engelsma (Cerner Enviza)

Every minute in qualitative physician and payer interviews is very precious. Doctor’s attention span remains finite while typically discussion guides tend to grow ever longer. The core part of the discussion is often an in-depth assessment of a TPP whereby other topics and questions on disease environment may precede this part almost as a warm-up. TPPs are typically shared online with only a few minutes available for the doctor or payer to read and understand its content. What are the key factors to keep in mind when designing a high-quality TPP for this situation? What is involved in preparation and in maximising TPP clarity and meaningfulness? Sharing experiences of 25 years of qualitative PMR in a group discussion.

About Erik Holzinger, groupH:

Erik founded groupH back in 2005 in London with a big vision but starting as a one-man-band working together with several trusted and like-minded associates. He both enjoyed commercial analysis and decision making and had a passion to create a unique working environment that enabled talented and self-driven people to happily go the extra-mile for their clients. This philosophy underpins groupH’s vision to this day.

Erik’s early career started in Big Pharma and Generics Marketing at Hoechst in South America. His Cranfield MBA led him to The Wilkerson Group, which was at that time the leading consultancy for Opportunity Assessment work. It is there, and later at Wood Mackenzie, that Erik deepened his understanding of the factors that drive the commercial success of early-stage novel therapeutics. This understanding has been refined over the years to reflect the ever-greater needs of doctors, payers and patients. He has worked across broad oncology and CV indications but also in rare diseases and for regenerative therapies requiring new market access models.

Whether it is knowing the right people for your project, discussing your asset in-depth with doctors or payers, analysing product pipelines, or teaching a yoga class after work or on weekends, Erik is interested as much in the detail as in big picture. This insight helps to put early to mid-stage products onto the right path. It also enables him to support his team and clients who are operating in an increasingly complex and interconnected world. Family life and playing hide & seek with his young daughter balances the daily stresses of work challenges.

Useful links / find out more about 2023 EPHMRA Annual Conference:

Register for the event:  https://ephmraconference.org/registration/
Open to member and non-member companies.

See full list of speakers: https://ephmraconference.org/programme-more-speakers/

View full programme: https://ephmraconference.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/EPHMRA-Conference-Programme-25.5.23.pdf

Any questions just get in touch – generalmanager@ephmra.org

The groupH Team

Data Collection, Analysis and Communication Master Class Part 1: Questionnaire considerations, from basic to conjoint

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Friday, 03 March 2023 at 13:00 UK (14:00 CET)

Register here

Okke has created many business solutions, set up centers of excellence around the globe and trained many researchers and clients on advanced analytical techniques. He is a client facing statistician as he believes that direct work with client is the best way to fully understand and advise on research and analytics. He has been always fascinated in the process of gathering in-depth understanding of human thinking in relation to questionnaire content improvements for various measurements. Previously he was a chief research officer at Synovate, Ipsos and PSL group. He holds a master’s degree in Psychological Methods and Techniques of Research (University of Amsterdam).

Questionnaire design needs an expert skill set. There are many issues to consider, like for instance defining variables, how to ask them, how to measure them and where to place them. We’re also concerned about the technical aspects as can be seen in choosing response scales and which variables are needed for multivariate methods. A high degree of technical knowledge is absolutely essential to ensure we can answer any given research questions.

Subsequent statistical data analysis can encompass anything from straightforward analyses to very complex models. We mustn’t forget though, that our data comes from human beings who, we assume, understand the questions in the same way we did when we developed the questionnaire. Answering a questionnaire remains a psychological experience with potential pitfalls and therefore every question needs to be carefully created/reviewed with the respondent in mind.

In this forum we’ll look at questionnaire creation through the lens of the respondent. Questions, question flow, response scales, advanced analytics, etc. Fine-tuning these aspects can greatly elevate the overall quality of insights. After all, where do we place the dependent variable? Before or after the independent attributes?

This talk is for junior and experienced individuals who are involved in creating or reviewing quantitative surveys and who want to benefit from an expert with over 25 years of experience in this area.

Both member and non-member companies can attend.

Any questions just get in touch – generalmanager@ephmra.org

The groupH Team

Prof. Paul Goodwin presenting at ephmra’s Forecasting Forum November 11th, 2022

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ephmra is delighted to host Professor Paul Goodwin Emeritus Professor and renowned speaker in Forecasting and Decision Analysis, on November 11th at 1:00 UK pm at the ephmra Forecasting Forum. Prof. Goodwin will introduce the topic of Possibility Theory/Fuzzy Forecasting to the ephmra audience for discussion. Chair of the event @Erik Holzinger/groupH
To join, please follow the link: https://us06web.zoom.us/meeting/register/tZIocuuvqjgiHtW6h8CuvaoXnWTqkaS097Ph

Invitation for an open discussion on Forecasting Best Practices Across Product Stages

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Join our discussion on Forecasting Best Practices Across Product Stages hosted by the NPP Community on Wednesday, November 2nd 2022, at 15.00 CET.

Unique opportunity to meet and talk to @Erik Holzinger/groupH and @Morris Paterson/Genentech.

To join the event please follow: https://lnkd.in/eHZ3Hw2w

 

 

 

Meet us in Leipzig, Germany at BIO-Europe: 24 – 26 October 2022

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groupH’s director, Erik Holzinger, will be attending BIO-Europe – starting by joining BiotechBikers event and Sunday’s Networking Reception.

If you wish to discuss partnering or business opportunities in early to mid-stage commercial decision-making and product development, please email erik.holzinger@grouph.com or use the event’s partneringOne platform to arrange a meeting.

We look forward to meeting with you.

EphMRA Forecasting Forum – A Discussion with Richard Murgatroyd from Roche

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A new series of Forecasting Forums are planned for 2021. This year we would like to extend the offer of the forum particularly to more junior, aspiring colleagues in forecasting and commercial decision making.

We aim to shed light on:

  • What makes people in different roles tick?
  • What does a typical week in a certain role look like?
  • What is the difference between working in industry, market research or consulting agency or in biotech or BizDev?

On 7th May at 13.00 GMT (14.00 CET) we are very pleased to welcome Richard Murgatroyd from Roche with whom we will spend 60 minutes exploring his latest role in Supply Chain Forecasting, but also learnings from past roles and activities. There will be ample time for any potential questions too.

Here is a short bio from Richard:

Richard started his pharmaceutical industry career in research in 1984 at the Wellcome Foundation, in a group attempting to find new treatments for tropical parasitic diseases. After a stint in the global Planning and Systems department, working among other things on forecasts using APL and with relational databases on IBM mainframe system, he moved into a market research agency.  In 1992 he joined SmithKline Beecham Pharmaceuticals, initially as an analyst in worldwide market research and then worldwide product manager for new neuroscience products. Before joining Roche in 2002, as Forecast Manager in the Global Marketing function, Richard was a consultant at the Mattson Jack Group, specialising in forecast modelling and carrying out a number of projects for pharmaceutical industry clients. Richard changed tack in 2014, moving into the Roche global supply chain organisation, where he is now Systems and Innovation expert in the Network Strategy group, concerned with volume demand planning as well as implementing and supporting a global planning system. Richard graduated with an honours degree in biochemistry from the University of Bath in 1983. In his personal life Richard enjoys analogue photography and loves riding large capacity (European) motorcycles.

 

If this is of interest please contact us so that we can provide connection details