An Introduction to Strategic Forecasting in the Pharmaceutical Industry

A 2-day, in-person, interactive, case-study based training
@Leonardo Royal Hotel, St. Pauls, London from 12–13th June, 2025

Course Objectives

Strategy and Value Optimisation meets Forecasting in this course. Participants will move away from the idea of forecasting as a static number, and towards using forecast models as strategic tools.

This includes assessing a range of potential indications at very early stages of development, and creating a variety of competitor, TPP, market or other scenarios, with the objective of optimizing the value of an asset within its life cycle.

In the very early clinical stages of an asset, essential questions need to be asked, such as:

Which indications to pursue?
Which patient segments to focus on?
How to take an asset forward?

When Go/No Go decisions are being made, managing risk and prioritising resources involves asking questions such as:

What are the key uncertainties for my asset?
Which parameters have the biggest impact on peak sales and NPV?
How to best leverage these parameters to maximise the opportunity?

Market pressures such as increased competition, LoE, and lately the US IRA require not only faster development and decision making, but also more certainty and robust analysis supporting key development decisions.

The forecaster has a crucial role in this process, as it is the forecast model where all considerations are reflected and quantified. Without commercially quantifying possible paths and strategies, there is no basis for decision-making. Hence strategy and forecasting merge into one role, which is central to a successful, multistakeholder, cross-functional team.

In this course, we explore how strategic forecasting can create more value for an organisation.

Note: This in-person, two-day course assumes a basic understanding of long-term forecasting using Excel.

What you will learn

How to inform strategic decisions at pre-IND stage through commercial assessments
Expand the forecast framework, challenge key parameters and maximize the opportunity for a mid-stage asset
Identify value drivers in your forecast funnel, market and competitor scenarios and manage uncertainties
Implement strategic considerations and enhance your forecast models and visual outputs
Defend and challenge forecast assumptions in a cross-functional team context, with the objective of maximizing an opportunity and increasing the probability of success
Shape the future rather than just predicting it – and in the process develop viable commercial assets

Who this is for

Forecasters, business insight executives and New Product Planning professionals with an existing basis of Excel and long term forecasting, who want to expand their skills and apply more strategic thinking to their role.

The course has been designed with the aim that the participant can directly apply the learnings to a range of assets and indications when back at their organisation. groupH will make a Cheat Sheet available to every participants listing common value drivers across different therapy areas.

Pre-reading

Course participants will receive briefing materials 2 – 3 weeks ahead of the course, covering 2 real-world case studies describing the strategic forecasting opportunities of two assets at different stages of development and in different indications. These briefing materials will describe indication and commercial environments, and may cover examples of business insights from patient, physician or payer research or competitor analysis.

Schedule – Day 1

Thursday 12th June – 9am to 5pm

Day 1: Morning

Introductions
What is strategic forecasting?
Brief overview of the most commonly used frameworks in value creation, forecasting and scenario planning, such as score cards, peak sales, NPV vs. eNPV, OoE, differential analysis (scores and weights) etc.
The toolkit of a strategy consultant, including uncertainty / impact matrix, commercial attractiveness vs. technical risks, tips & tricks

Day 1: Afternoon

Case Study 1 – Technology X, Indication Assessment Framework

Setting the scene by developing value propositions, prioritizing indications and considering insights from R&D
Base case value propositions, TPP vs. enhanced TPP
Break-out groups:
- Identifying strategic options for an asset or a range of asset-scenarios
- Quantifying possible strategic options
Team discussion & decision making
Demonstration of groupH deliverable, with model enhancements and suggested visual outputs

Day 1: Evening (Optional)

Networking dinner in the vicinity of the hotel

Schedule – Day 2

Friday 13th June – 9am to 3.30pm

Day 2: Morning

Case Study 2 – Product X TPP, Assumption Matrix and Forecast Model

Setting the scene with a pipeline analysis, an insightful piece of patient MR, and outputs from a market access or a scenario planning workshop
Developing and prioritizing strategic options
Break-out groups
Identifying strategic options for key value drivers
Quantifying possible strategic options working with Excel
Team discussion & decision making
Demonstration of groupH deliverable, with model enhancements and suggested visual outputs

Day 2: Afternoon

Summary and Key Learnings
Wrap Up

Training fee

£2,250 exc. VAT and £2,000 exc. VAT (Early Bird)

The early bird offer will end on 12th May.

Terms and Conditions >

Venue and date

Training venue:

Leonardo Royal London St. Paul’s
10 Godliman Street
London, EC4V 5AJ
United Kingdom

Training date:

Thursday 12th and Friday 13th June, 2025

Discounted Hotel Accommodation

Use the code GROUPH2025 for a 12% discount on the best available rate for the bedrooms, when booking via the Leonardo Royal St. Pauls website.

Attendees can book using this code up till 7 days prior to check in date.

Terms and Conditions

Terms and Conditions >

We call on a comprehensive toolkit of methodologies and services to deliver these insights from gold standard research techniques to proprietary tools that we have developed ourselves.