We quickly recognized that there were two key challenges in this area: (1) the huge geographical differences in antimicrobial resistance patterns and infection control / treatment paradigms & (2) the inherent and widely acknowledged difficulty predicting how antimicrobial resistance might evolve. In order to address these issues we started with a comprehensive deep-dive qual assignment designed to gather views from the leading microbiologists and infectious disease specialists in 25 countries across the EU, Latin America and Asia Pacific. This focused on understanding current and future resistance trends for key Gram-negative pathogens, and to understand individual country initiatives that might impact these trends. After discussions with the core team, these future resistance rates were interpreted for use within the forecast model.
We then conducted an in-depth quantitative demand assessment on previously identified treatable patient segments (i.e. patients with suspected resistant Gram-negative infections). The approach was as follows:
- Understand the level of unmet need for new agents for specific pathogens at different infection sites
- Determine market share held by existing drugs and combination regimens
- Assess the potential impact of Competitor X, launching before our target product, using preference shares and attribute scores
- Assess the potential impact of our Product Y using the same methodology, but assuming Product X was available
- Assess impact of Competitor Z, launching after our Product Y.
This detailed on-line survey was followed up with a series of TAE qualitative interviews to present key findings from the demand research and to understand better their expected positioning of each new product in the market. This helped with our interpretation of the quantitative data for the product’s commercial forecast.
We interpreted results of the demand study into market share assumptions for the new product for each patient segment, tempering the preference share data with unmet needs analysis and the attribute scoring methodology. A final working meeting was held to present and discuss the findings to provide confidence in the market share assumptions being included in the global forecast model.