How accurate are long term sales forecasts?

This is indeed a question many people ask, or if not, should ask themselves.

With forecasts even at late-stage clinical development, and assuming the product is approved, launched and reimbursed, peak sales can be more than ten years into the future.

This does not naturally invite follow-up or analysis as people and organisations move on and data sets supporting the forecast may not be at hand anymore – thus, the question most often remains unanswered.

groupH turned onto itself in analysing its own forecasting track record, looking at a basket of 50 projects from as far back as 2003 to support transparency and learning as much as possible.

Let us take you through a quick eight minute audio summary by clicking the play button below or download the PDF for a more thorough read in your own time.