The Human Side of Forecasting – Avoiding pitfalls facing Business Review Committees

The role of the forecaster extends beyond the modelling and the numbers, and all too often you may find yourself presenting cross-departmentally to your organisational equivalent of a Business Review Committee, for example, or to another organisation. This may not be an ad-hoc event, but many months of bringing all the pieces together may lead up to this day, when your work is being scrutinized from many different perspectives.

In our November forum we will explore potential pitfalls, and how to increase the chances of success during those meetings. We are delighted to introduce Florent Edouard, now Global Head of Commercial Excellence at Grünenthal, who will introduce the topic and share some of his experiences from working in senior commercial roles at AstraZeneca and at Grünenthal with us.

‘The Human Side of Forecasting’ Avoiding pitfalls facing Business Review Committees – Presenting the Committee Perspective

  • Who typically are the Committee members?
  • What are Committee members looking for?
  • What is the context of the Forecast?
  • Why is it needed?
  • What resonates?
  • Factors behind unsuccessful reviews: Those under our control and those that are not.
  • Q&A / Discussion

If this is of interest please contact us so that we can provide connection details for you to join us on 13 November, 2020

Post CoVID-19: a new normal for carbon emissions in Pharma Market Research?

During the CoVID lockdown, have you thought to yourself: wow, our industry’s carbon emissions must have gone down dramatically? Would you be curious to find out by just how much? Erik Holzinger will be chairing a webinar by Bors Hulesch, of Brains & Cheek, looking at this very issue.

Tuesday 6th October – 15.00 – 15.40 UK time – Post CoVID-19: a new normal for carbon emissions in Pharma Market Research?

The sustainability team at Brains & Cheek, an EphMRA agency member, was conducting a carbon audit of the pharma market research industry, just before the lockdown kicked in. Now they are in the process of collecting the same data for the lockdown period, so that they can compare the two data sets. As part of this talk, you will also be treated to some modelling scenarios: what would it look like if we returned to business as usual, and what if there were a second wave of Coronavirus. At the end of the talk, you will be invited to share your views on how the pharma market research industry should move forward on carbon emissions, based on the data presented.

If you are involved in business sustainability or corporate social responsibility (or just concerned for the future of our planet!), this talk should be of interest, so please join us.

This webinar is free to attend, but only available to EphMRA members. Click here to register

Please register at least 30 minutes in advance in order to receive approval and join.

Forecasting & Data Analytics – highly informative webinars to help you during and beyond COVID-19

Forecasting is increasingly challenging in our new world and as part of the EphMRA conference this year, Erik Holzinger will be co-chairing two webinars discussing different aspects of forecasting and data analytics.  These webinars will help you during these uncertain times, and there are some outstanding speakers who will share their expertise, so please join us.

Tuesday 23rd June – 09.00 UK time – China Forecasting – Primary Market Research in China, Market Access and Overcoming Other Challenges in Forecasting

Richard Goosey and Julia Liu from Kantar Health and will provide an insight into the following:

  1. An overview of the regulation changes in China
  2. How the evolution of policies in recent years are mainly to control cost
  3. How regulatory trends on market access have predominantly a positive impact on patients access to medication
  4. The impact of COVID-19
  5. What does the future look like
  6. How do these regulations impact pharma sales

Tuesday 23rd June – 09.40 UK time – How AI is (not) changing demand planning

Sven Crone, Lecturer at Lancaster University Management School, will share his expertise in Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning (AI/ML), focusing on its limitations in planning.

AI/ML reign high on the Gartner hype cycle, promising new business models, and capturing the imagination of many Pharma executives well outside the digital industries of Facebook, Google and Uber. However, despite dozens of Proof-of-Concept studies in demand planning, AI/ML is struggling to prove significant increases in planning accuracy. One limiting factor, we will argue, is that the underlying data is fundamentally different. After a very brief introduction into AI/ML we will explore the fundamental difference in data between image/voice/video recognition and typical pharmaceutical demand planning, where we data size and data labels are often very sparse. As this limits the benefit of the AI/ML algorithms of Google & co, we will show a case study where we have enhanced datasets in demand panning and thus showed promise in using AI/ML for Janssen (a Johnson & Johnson company).

 

These webinars are free to attend, but only available to EphMRA members. Click here to register

Please register at least 30 minutes in advance in order to receive approval and join these webinars.

 

New Directions in Forecasting – Half-Day Event in Ingelheim: 11 October, 2019

In the series of our monthly online TC Forecasting Forums, here is our first face-to-face half-day event in Ingelheim on 11th October.

Please join us to discuss Excellence in Commercial Decision Making.

For full details of the agenda please click here

 

 

 

 

New Directions in Forecasting – Roundtable at EphMRA 2019 in Warsaw, 26 June

Following the success of the inaugural session in Basel last year, Erik Holzinger (groupH) will once again be hosting a round-table discussion during this year’s annual EphMRA 2019 Conference in Warsaw.  The purpose is to open up a number of key topics to a wider audience, share views and develop a consensus as to which approach suits which business situation and leads to the best possible outcomes.

This year’s topics include:

  1. US Long Term Outlook on Rx Spending
  2. US Pricing Gross – Net
  3. Rx Patient Share – EphMRA Meta-Analysis Project Draft
  4. Forecasting Clinic – Ask your peers at the Round table!

This hour-long round table will discuss the long-term prospects and risks affecting the Rx market of the country that most impacts EU Pharma prosperity: the US. Briefing materials will illustrate the widening gap between gross and net pricing in the US and discuss the associated challenges for forecasters to remain ‘conservative’. The meeting will also discuss the current draft-outline of the EphMRA-Forecasting-Forum-Meta-Analysis-Project and look for further input and refinement. Last but not least, we reserve some time for a Forecasting Clinic. Bring any burning questions, topics or issues concerning Forecasting and Data Analytics and gather informal feedback from your peers in the room.

Join us to rub shoulders with leading experts in the industry, get inspired and join the discussion on the current state and future direction of this important business function.

Click www.ephmraconference.org for conference website and registration, click www.ephmraconference.org/programme-2019/ for the full conference programme.

If this is of interest please let us know, and we will ensure you have a place at the table

Looking for and Quantifying Value in Rare Diseases: 6th November, 2018

groupH was selected to present on the topic of Looking for and Quantifying Value in Rare Diseases at an EphMRA meeting in Basel on 6th November, 2018.

Rare diseases present a number of challenges for manufacturers, which are absent in more prevalent conditions.  So which approach should you take when trying to determine value?

In his presentation Erik Holzinger addresses this question and highlights some of the issues involved.

Click here to view this presentation.

New Directions in Forecasting – Roundtable at EphMRA 2018 in Basel, 27 June

The role of forecasting as a business function, or if used as a tool in and outside of Pharma / Device organisations, continues to evolve at a fast pace.  Ben Collins (Boehringer Ingelheim) and Erik Holzinger (groupH) are hosting a round-table discussion during this year’s annual EphMRA 2018 Conference in Basel, to open up a number of key topics to a wider audience, share views and develop a consensus as to which approach suits which business situation and leads to best possible outcomes.

1.    Organising the forecasting process across the Pharma organisation

  • Best Practice – How do central office and affiliates communicate and create consensus on assumptions?
  • What is the general process – Can vendors help? How?

2.    How to communicate strategic forecasts and illustrate uncertainties to senior management (does Monte Carlo simulation have a role here? If yes, how do you use it?)
3.    Early insights into the application of Behavioural Economics to the forecasting process
4.    Best Practice – Required granularity and scope in forecasting strategic pipeline and in-licensing assets: US + RoW?

The conference also includes a number of papers on related topics covering different case studies on the use of collaborative software for forecasting within multi-national organisations and novel approaches to data analytics in auto-immune diseases using Electronic Medical Records to augment traditional primary research.

Please join them to rub shoulders with leading experts in the industry, get inspired by the use of novel ground-breaking technologies and join the discussion on the current state and future direction of this important business function.

Click www.ephmraconference.org for conference website and registration, click www.ephmraconference.org/home/programme for the full conference programme.

If this is of interest please let us know, and we will ensure you have a place at the table.

Meet us in San Francisco at Biotech Showcase: 8-10 January 2018

As we’re sure you are aware, the biggest healthcare investing event of the year, the JP Morgan Healthcare Conference, will be returning to San Francisco in early January.

groupH will be attending the Biotech Showcase – navigating the packed agenda of company presentations, panel discussions, and networking receptions.

If you’re in San Francisco for these events, we’d love to meet up to discuss your latest commercializing plans, the potential impact of changes to the competitor landscape, and incorporating the needs of physicians, payers, and patients into your strategic planning.

We look forward to meeting informally over a coffee or through the meeting partnering platform.

Join groupH in Amsterdam at EphMRA: 20-22 June, 2017

Join groupH at EphMRA 2017 in Amsterdam between 20-22 June. Erik Holzinger will be chairing several sessions and also co-presenting with Bernd Mühlenweg from Nanobiotix. Their session will explore the benefits of addressing the payer hurdle very early in clinical development, and will focus on sharing ideas and best practice.

“How engaging payers early transformed our clinical development and portfolio planning – a case study” will be presented on Wednesday 21 June at 2.45pm.

If you or your colleagues are also attending EphMRA 2017, we would be very happy to meet up. Please drop us a line to arrange this.

Even if you can’t make it, we would be happy to share our perspectives from the conference, so do get in touch if you are interested in learning more about the topics that are discussed or about groupH’s work

groupH at World Orphan Drug Congress, Brussels, 15 – 17 November, 2016

Join Erik Holzinger in Brussels. We would be very happy to meet up or to share our perspectives from the conference in case you are not attending this event.