Strategic Forecasting in the Pharmaceutical Industry: A 2-Day Interactive Training

@Leonardo Royal Hotel, St. Pauls, London 

REGISTRATION LINK

groupH is dedicated to providing pharma, biotech companies and investors with strategic insights and bespoke company forecasts at both early and late stage of product development.

Do I develop my asset for the right indications? Have I done everything possible to maximise the inherent value of my asset within its lifecycle? How are commercial forecasts put together and used as a strategic tool?

To help answer those questions Erik Holzinger and Lise Thomalla are providing an in-person training course to develop an understanding of how strategy can be incorporated into forecasts.  This includes determining the range of potentially attractive indications at very early stages of development and assessing a variety of competitor, TPP, market or other scenarios, with the objective of optimizing the value of an asset within increasingly competitive environments and shorter life cycles.

If you have any further questions please do contact erik.holzinger@grouph.com or lise.thomalla@grouph.com

The groupH Team

Join groupH in Paris at ESMO TAT 2025

 

About Erik Holzinger, groupH:

Erik Holzinger MBA is the founder of groupH a Consulting company dedicated to commercial decision making and analysis. In recent years Erik has been particularly interested in exploring the topics such as forecasting efficiency and driving value at the more delicate, early stages of an asset when commercial and scientific uncertainty is still quite high. Erik is also active as a member of the ephmra Annual Conference Organizing Committee and co-founder of the ephmra Forecasting Forum. Prior to 2005, he was a Principal Consultant in the Pharmaceuticals and Biotechnology team at Wood Mackenzie and a Consultant at The Wilkerson Group. His native language is German, and he is fluent in English and Spanish. Erik enjoys living in South-West London with his family.

Any questions just get in touch – erik.holzinger@grouph.com

The groupH Team

… bye 2024, welcome 2025!

As groupH steps into its 20th Anniversary year, we’re thrilled to continue evolving and embracing innovative technologies and ideas to advance early-asset evaluation.

A heartfelt thank you to our clients, partners, and the team for being part of this incredible journey.

Wishing you a Merry Christmas, Happy Holidays, and a peaceful, well-deserved break. Here’s to continued growth and innovation in the year ahead!

The groupH Team

groupH London Away-Day: Celebrating Teamwork and Milestones

On Friday, 13th September 2024, the groupH core team and associates gathered in London for a special event at the Enrica Rocca Cooking School in Notting Hill, marking not only a memorable team experience but also the 10-year anniversaries of our dear colleagues, Sara Uttley and Anju Patel. Both were honored throughout the evening for their incredible contributions over the past decade.
This event was a testament to the strong bonds we’ve built as a team, and we’re excited for many more milestones to come!

 

ISPOR Conference “HEOR: A Transformative Force for Whole Health” Atlanta, 2024

The ISPOR 2024 conference in Atlanta is themed “HEOR: A Transformative Force for Whole Health”. Will this advocated, holistic approach to HEOR, which is conceptually not new, be reflected in future drug pricing?

In strategic forecasting, pricing and market access are key parameters. The Inflation Reduction Act has dominated the headlines on this topic since its introduction to the US in 2022. However, without much detail on its impact on net price being known yet, what can be learned from the initial negotiations?

No conference is without AI nowadays. What is the role of generative AI in Health HEOR and RWE? And, of course, Real World Data (RWD) and data analysis remain evergreen topics at ISPOR.

Key Takeaways

  • The benefits of a holistic approach to health are well accepted but value beyond the patient has yet to significantly and directly impact pricing and reimbursement decisions
  • The complexity emerging in IRA’s price-setting process was highlighted as CMS prepares for another round of negotiations
  • As generative AI continues to evolve, hurdles still have to be overcome before its transformative benefits can be realised
  • Integrating diverse RWD sources to create dependable and ethical evidence demands the overcoming of challenges in data accuracy, reliability and stakeholder communication

What we won’t forget from the conference

  • The IRA negotiation process and its likely outcome for manufacturers remains uncertain for now on many levels. However, for long term forecasting, a high-level, rule-of-thumb discount is needed for your forecast. groupH proposes to use an average rate of ~30% for the Medicare insured share of target patients from the year the IRA rebate might kick in onwards
  • RWD and HEOR remain evergreen topics. Important but only indirectly supporting key forecast assumptions
  • AI has also made its way to ISPOR. Its multitude of possible uses promise long term opportunity and transformation, but high validation and educational hurdles prevent any short term impact in market access or pricing & reimbursement
  • We note the continued, holistic approach to health that ISPOR has been advocating this year was expressed by numerous sessions focused on patient-centredness in research and decision making. But we also continue to watch how this approach will exactly
    translate to pricing negotiations in the long term

Please follow the link to a more detailed summary: EVENT SUMMARY

Summary is for long term forecasting specialists and strategic market access.

By Erik Holzinger, groupH, London and Keshalini Sabaratnam, London

 

Event Summary “German Chapter Meeting” Berlin, April 2024

We are almost one year on from ephmra’s 2023 annual conference when we were told that in the future, on average, AI will free up 37% of our time. For many this was a wake-up call at the time but one year later in Berlin, there is still a sentiment that it cannot yet be foreseen how exactly AI is going to change future market research and insight work. There are still relatively few pharma case studies around and overall AI literacy is only just emerging, similar to AI being as novel as a new molecule in Phase 1.

The ephmra German Chapter meeting was looking to provide not only more food-for-thought but also hands-on AI experience and perhaps a reminder that innovation is not all about AI.

Here is groupH’s pick of the key messages.

AI is not perfect but engage rather than wait

Paul Simmering from Team Q gave some background on the history of AI, its progress in recent years, its key principles and illustrated ways of how to customize AI for more relevant responses. In his view, the promise of AI lies in its ability to offer a bigger scale of analysis while also allowing more time for big-picture strategy, communication and action. QC measures, however, remain to be optimised to address potential issues with LLMs. These challenges include potentially imprecise, incomplete, obsolete, not-reproduceable or hallucinating responses, which may undermine trust in the technology.

Acquiring AI literacy includes refining prompt engineering skills

Guided hands-on AI training sessions helped to create synthetic respondents and AI images. We also used AI for the coding of open-ended questions and learned how to use the right prompts to find, extract and condense publicly available information with ChatGPT for a case study. In this example case study extracting and comparing existing or planned use of AI and other new technologies between the 2023 annual reports of Pfizer and AstraZeneca was possible in less than 2 minutes even for a less experienced AI user.

Traditional research formats such as ATUs are evolving

While popular and seen as indispensable, traditional message recall projects may suffer from shortcomings such as lack of actionability of outputs or potential inflation of ‘true’ impact while they are resource intensive and time consuming. Samy Issaoui from Instar suggests that more value can be generated with a more holistic approach involving customisable master KPI modules, expanded recall timeframes, use of chatbots and real-time dashboards.

What we won’t forget from the conference

  • Demystifying AI is much less daunting when organised as a series of informal workshops
  • There is another angle when looking at AI, not as a rising tide of new AI enabled tools but as a range of possibilities that may enhance or complement a given use-case
  • It is still early days for AI. Similar to a Phase 1, FIH drug trial, the milestone generates excitement but still carries a lot of uncertainty. Generative AI LLMs mimic human responses but unlike humans they do not [yet] have an internal view of the world and hence may lack the important attribute of reproducibility
  • Loft workspaces are nice but do come at the cost of climbing at least 5 flights of stairs in the typical Berlin early 20th century houses

By Erik Holzinger, groupH, London

 

Seasons Greetings 2023

Unlike 2022, luckily our Christmas lunch gathering has not been affected by any train or air travel strike action this year.  So some of the people who make up groupH in Europe came together at the Zetter Townhouse for a couple of hours. Special thanks to our cello player Garwin Lynnell for not only a rendition of Bach but also of Kraftwerk – very special indeed.

We will be off to a short break and look forward to serve you again in 2024.

The groupH team

Happy Holidays from the groupH team

Dear clients and colleagues,

As another year draws to a close, it is not only friends, colleagues and family who have been sitting at work and dinner tables this year, but also a new visitor called AI. We hope you like the illustration on our Christmas card and that meeting AI is the ‘beginning of a beautiful friendship’ as in ‘Casablanca’, rather than the fate of HAL9000 in 2001: A Space Odyssey, who faced deactivation in the end.

I leave you with a quote from the physicist Richard P. Feynman “I can live with doubt and uncertainty and not knowing. I think it is much more interesting to live not knowing than to have answers that might be wrong.”

Thank you to all our clients, collaborators, associates and friends and to all their families who supported us whilst we delivered on our work commitments throughout the year. Thanks to Yasmin El-Saie, our resident artist for the drawing (www.yasminelsaie.com)

The groupH Team

End-of-Summer 2023

On Friday 15th September, the groupH core team and local associates met in London for an end-of-summer social get together. At our dinner in Notting Hill, we celebrated togetherness, successfully completed projects, catching up on personal news and the fact that luck was on our side with glorious late-summer weather throughout the day.

 

Join groupH’s discussion on TPP Development and Indication Prioritization at the NPP Summit Boston

groupH will talk through 2 project case studies focusing on TPP Development and Indication Prioritization for Biotech companies at pre-clinical or early-stage clinical stage. The talk is aimed at individuals in commercial and non-commercial roles who have to manage uncertainty when aligning on overall scientific and commercial strategy. We will discuss a recent, real-world project process and the trade-offs between different, alternative project approaches. We will dissect the TPP development process and share client views on project timing and project learnings. Participants will leave with key insights from this real-world technology platform development project and there will be time for Q&A at the end.

About Erik Holzinger, groupH:

Erik Holzinger MBA is the founder of groupH a Consulting company dedicated to commercial decision making and analysis. In recent years Erik has been particularly interested in exploring the topics driving TPP development at the more delicate, early stages when commercial and scientific uncertainty is still quite high. Erik is also active as member of the ephmra Annual Conference Organising Committee and co-founder of the ephmra Forecasting Forum. Prior to 2005, he was a Principal Consultant in the Pharmaceuticals and Biotechnology team of Wood Mackenzie and a Consultant at The Wilkerson Group. His mother tongue is German, and he is fluent in English and Spanish and lives in South-West London with his family. Outside of work Erik enjoys spending time with his family, yoga, cycling, windsurfing, skiing and the cultural landscape of London.

Find out more about the NPP Summit Boston, October 16, 2023:

Register for the event:  https://www.newproductplanning.com/newproductplanningcom/register

See full list of speakers: https://www.newproductplanning.com/newproductplanningcom/faculty

View full programme: https://www.newproductplanning.com/newproductplanningcom/schedule

Any questions just get in touch – erik.holzinger@grouph.com

The groupH Team